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BMY/BAYN/JNJ Factor XI: Is the Market Mispricing Milvexian? Stroke valuation leverage underappreciated. AF optionality overlooked
February 17, 2026
Following Bayer’s full Phase 3 Factor XIa stroke readout, the market appears to be positioning BMY/JNJ’s milvexian as a structurally disadvantaged, late entrant. The central debate is whether differentiation remains plausible or whether share is effectively locked. Our work suggests the probability of clinically meaningful separation is not being fully reflected in positioning, creating asymmetric equity implications across BMY-BAYN in a multi-billion-dollar stroke market, with additional optionality in AF that is currently treated as zero.
We address:
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Is BMY/JNJ’s milvexian appropriately discounted as a late entrant, or does data justify a materially different valuation framework?
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Is BMY/JNJ’s AF program correctly treated as a zero-value asset post-class disappointment (OCEANIC-AF failure), or does its design preserve meaningful convexity that is not embedded in current models?
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Is once-daily dosing a defensible structural advantage for BAYN?
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What proportion of the non-cardioembolic stroke population is commercially addressable under the trial inclusion criteria?
Year | Stock | Call | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 | BAY | OCEANIC-STROKE reduces stroke | +11% |
2025 | BMY | Factor IX reduces strokes | +4% |
2025 | MRK | MRK: Sotatercept: Pulmonary HT CADENCE-PH p2 positve | +4% |
2025 | MRK | Oral PCSK9 CORAL-reef LIPIDs P3 positve | +5% |
2025 | BMY | LIBREXIA-ACS trial missed | -4% |
2025 | NOVN | Oral Fablata eGFR benefit leave inj BAFF/APRIL's undifferentiated | +2% |
2025 | ROG | ROG: Giredestrant evERA P3 PFS driven by ESR1 benefit only | -2% |
2025 | NOVN | Remibrutinib FDA approved | +3% |
2025 | NOVN | Successful phase III NEPTUNUS | +4% |
2025 | VERA | ORIGIN3 well ahead of expectations | +68% |
2025 | NOVN | P3 APPULSE +ve switch from C5 inc Hb by 2 | +2% |
2024 | BMY | Cendakimab: eosinophilic oesophagitis P3 positve | +4% |
2024 | AZN | Dato-DXD misses OS in Lung and Breast | -12% |
2024 | SRPT | Wide label FDA approval of Duchenne Gene Rx | +52% |
2024 | CYTK | Royalty deal, not Buy out | -33% |
2024 | MRK | FDA approval of Pulmonary HT drug | +5% |
2023 | Pfizer | FDA approval of Hair loss drug | +2% |
2023 | Novartis | Kisqali wins in early stage breast cancer | +25% |
2023 | MRK | TIGIT fails | -5% |
2023 | CNCE | Alopeica BuyOut | +186% |
2022 | ROG | TIGIT fails | -5% |
2022 | AZN | Lynparza positive phase III in prostate cancer | +5% |
2021 | Novartis | Unprecedented OS from Kisqali in all breast cancer | +4% |
2021 | BMY | Successful Factor XIa blot clot prevention trial | +2% |
2021 | GSK | Best in class CKD phase III | +2% |
2021 | JNJ | Legend BCMA FDA delay | -3% |
2021 | BMY | Abecma FDA approval | +4% |
2021 | JNJ | Amivantamab FDA approval | +2% |
2020 | BMY | FDA approval of Ipi+nivo with best OS ever | +3% |
2020 | Novartis | Zolgensma best in class data in SMA | +5% |
2019 | MRK | CM227 better long term survival than MRK | -6% |
2019 | Bristol | CHECKMATE 227 meets OS | +6% |
2018 | Incyte | NKTR-214 misses ORR expectation at SITIC | +51% |
2018 | Incyte | IDO fails | -52% |
2017 | Bristol | IO/IO combo successful in Kidney cancer | +5% |
2017 | Puma | Neratinib FDA approval | +200% |
2017 | Roche | Perjeta fails in majority of APHINITY | -9% |
2016 | Bristol | Opdivo fails in 1st line Lung cancer | -20% |
2015 | Bristol | Opdivo benefit restricted in 2L Lung cancer | -8% |
2014 | Roche | TDM1 fails | -7% |
2014 | Roche | MetMab fails | -5% |
2013 | Novo | Levmir pricing | +20% |
2013 | Novo | FDA rejects degludec | -13% |
2012 | Roche | dalcetrapib fails | -7% |
2011 | Roche | Avastin formally withdrawn breast | -5% |
2010 | Astra | FDA rejects Brillinta | -11% |
2010 | Roche | Avastin Breast 2nd ODAC | -10% |
2010 | Novartis | Gilenya FDA approved | +7% |
2010 | Novartis | Unanimous +ve ODAC Gilenya | +7% |
2009 | Sanofi | Prescribing ignored Lantus scare | +20% |
2009 | Roche | Avastin fails early colon cancer | -13% |
2008 | Roche | Avastin thesis | -30% |
2007 | Roche | Avastin Breast ODAC | -9% |
2007 | Sanofi | Acomplia ODAC | -13% |
2006 | Sanofi | Plavix generic FTC | -9% |
Dr Amit Roy, Founding Partner
Dr Roy has been serving the Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund community for 20 years with bold, contrarian research, founding Foveal LLP in 2014.
After graduating from the University of Cambridge and gaining Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons, he became one of the youngest Cardio-Thoracic surgeons in the U.K. He developed a unique insight into the drivers of drug safety and pharmaceutical risk assessment during his years in R&D at Roche Pharmaceuticals, while gaining an MBA from London Business School. Amit was a Managing Director at Nomura and head of European Healthcare Equity Research since 2008, having joined from Citigroup. He has delivered a consistent, strong track record of predicting the outcomes of key catalysts and value drivers in the biotech & pharma sectors for over 20 years, yielding persistent alpha for his clients.
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