ROG.VX: Perjeta's precarious premise, ambitious Esbriet aspirations

Initiation of Coverage of Roche: Underweight - Target Price CHF235

We see major risks over Herceptin add-on Perjeta in breast cancer (critical to sustaining leadership and growth in HER2 cancer with impending biosimilars), along with limited prospects for newly acquired Esbriet that leaves us 10-14% below cons EPS in 2017-18.

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